Euro Could Gain This Week, But Long-Term Outlook Remains Bleak

Fundamental Outlook for Euro This Week: Bullish

- ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny says he can’t rule out further rate cuts

- The Euro-zone's current account deficit narrowed to 6.4 billion euros, thanks to lower oil prices

The euro spent the majority of the past week consolidating versus the US dollar between 1.3915 and 1.4125, and these levels remain the proverbial lines in the sand, as a break above or below the bounds will suggest that price will continue to move in that direction. However, given the pair’s slow and steady climb from the December 19 low of 1.3826, it seems more likely that the EUR/USD rally could extend beyond 1.4125 toward 1.4300 once volumes pick up again.

From an event risk perspective, there’s nothing on the euro’s side of the coin to prevent such a move. The only indicators due to be released include the Purchasing Managers’ Index results for the Euro-zone’s retail and manufacturing sectors, both of which are anticipated to reflect the worst conditions on record. Nevertheless, these do not tend to be very market-moving for the euro, leaving technical analysis as a better method to use this week.

In coming weeks, though, traders should keep in mind that the European Central Bank is still anticipated to cut rates yet again on January 15, as Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are pricing in a 50bp reduction to 2.00 percent. The fact of the matter is that price growth has slowed dramatically and recession is plaguing the Euro-zone’s biggest economies. While credit conditions have improved in recent weeks, the potential for instability still lingers and the ECB may want to confront this head on with more accommodative monetary policy. As a result, further gains in the currency should be heeded with caution.

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