Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Clear Momentum And Technicals May Provide A Short-Term EURAUD Range Opportunity

Liquidity is thinning out and risk trends are on the cusp of a major shift – meaning the conditions are not favorable for range trades. However, there are a few high-risk setups that may actually benefit through a period of chop and turbulence with help of strong technicals and offsetting fundamentals.

2008.11.26.img

Why Would EURAUD Stay in a Range?

· Levels to Watch:

-Range Top: 2.0500 (Trend, Swing High)

-Range Bottom: 1.9700 (Trend, Fibs, Pivot)

· There are three competing fundamental forces behind EURAUD. The most immediate threat to volatility is the low-liquidity expected for the North American session over the remainder of this week – which could leverage swings in price action. More consistent are the unpredictable tides of risk sentiment which has endowed EURAUD with volatility but not direction. Finally, there is the presence of significant event risk from both sides.

read more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/081126/1227725692401.html?.v=1

Dollar gains on fresh evidence of economic woes

Dollar gains as jobs, housing, manufacturing, spending data worry investors:
The dollar rose against most other major currencies in midday trading Wednesday as weak reports on housing, employment and manufacturing added to worries about the economy.

The 15-nation euro fell to $1.2832 from $1.3022 late Tuesday, while the British pound dropped to $1.5232 from $1.5400. But the dollar dipped to 95.38 Japanese yen from 95.65 yen.

The Labor Department said new claims for jobless benefits fell to 529,000 last week from a 16-year high of 543,000 the previous week. The four-week average for initial claims, however, rose to 518,000, its highest point since January 1983.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said consumer spending fell by 1 percent in October. Spending by consumers makes up two-thirds of the country's economic activity, and the monthly decline was the biggest since 2001.

The government also released grim reports on housing and manufacturing. Sales of new homes plunged 5.3 percent in October to their lowest point in nearly 18 years, while the median price of a home fell to 2004 lows. Factory orders for durable goods dropped 6.2 percent in October, with heavy declines in auto and airplane demand.

Stocks started lower after three days of gains before recovering as President-elect Barack Obama named former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker as a senior advisor and hammered home his message that help is coming for the economy. By midday, the Dow Jones industrials were up about 80 points after falling as much as 167 earlier in the session.

read more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081126/dollar.html?.v=1

Consumers cut spending

Consumers cut spending during October at the steepest rate in more than seven years and orders for costly manufactured goods plummeted, according to Commerce Department reports on Wednesday that implied a steep recessionary downturn was at hand.
Spending that fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity dropped 1.0 percent, its biggest fall since the attacks against the United States seven years ago in September 2001.

It was a fourth straight monthly fall in spending and underlined how a credit crunch, falling home prices and steady job losses were sapping consumers' will and ability to spend.

Worse yet, a survey showed consumer confidence fell to a 28-year low in November as mounting job losses, falling incomes and tumbling household wealth battered sentiment, highlighting the troubles for the economy ahead.

Orders for costly durable goods like cars, machinery and computers dropped by 6.2 percent in October, more than twice as much as Wall Street economists had forecast, as demand weakened across nearly every major sector of manufacturing.

read more....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081126/business_us_usa_economy.html?.v=6

Dollar rebounds :

The U.S. dollar moved higher against major currencies Wednesday as grim economic reports stifled demand for risky currencies like the euro and the pound.

The euro traded down at $1.2836 from $1.3066 late Tuesday in New York. Britain's pound fell to $1.5241 from $1.5491.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar traded at ¥95.37, down from ¥95.47.

The dollar had retreated Tuesday as investors cheered the government's latest efforts to stabilize the economy, which sparked a rally on Wall Street. But that sentiment faded Wednesday as the market was walloped by a barrage of bleak readings on the economy.

"As long as the correlation between currencies and equities remains tight the dollar will be vulnerable to moves such as the one we've seen over the past few sessions," said Steve Malyon, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

Wednesday's data highlighted weakness in housing, manufacturing, consumer spending and the labor market. The grim picture bolstered the market's conviction that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

read more.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081126/112608_dollar.html?.v=1

FALTERING GROWTH

China's cut in banks' benchmark lending and deposit rates by 108 basis points came a day after the World Bank said Chinese growth next year would be around 7.5 percent, the slowest rate since 1990.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) also reduced reserve requirements by 1 percentage point for big banks and by 2 percentage points for smaller banks.

"It's certainly a lot more aggressive than anything they've done recently. I think it speaks volumes about just how much China has slowed down," said Anthony Muh of AT Asset Management in Hong Kong.

The European Commission approved a package it hopes will be taken up by EU member states aimed at giving the sagging European economy a sharp, temporary boost with a 200 billion euro ($260 billion) spending plan across the 27-nation bloc, an EU source said.

The plan, bigger than initially thought, calls for a targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus of 1.5 percent of EU gross domestic product. National measures would account for around 170 billion euros, or 1.2 percent of GDP, and EU and European Investment Bank budgets around 30 billion euros.

The Commission wants the EU's 27 countries to unite on a two-year dash for growth, even if it means breaking the region's national deficit targets.

Leaders from the bloc will study the plan at a December 11-12 summit.

The Chinese and EU moves come a day after U.S. officials announced $800 billion in programs to boost consumer and small business lending, adding to trillions of dollars committed to easing turmoil in the global financial system.

Some EU countries were cautious. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned EU partners against competing to produce big stimulus packages for their economies and defended her plans for Germany as policies of "measure, middle ground and reason." (nLQ608609)

Germany and Britain have already launched stimulus programs, and France is poised to. Berlin said it assumed its existing plan would be enough.

STUMBLING

Company news reinforced the view that the global economy was stumbling badly.

In Japan, Toyota Motor Corp had its top-notch credit rating cut for the first time in a decade.

In the United States, upscale jeweler Tiffany & Co and farm equipment maker Deere & Co scaled back their earnings forecasts, indicating no end in sight to the downturn.

"It is impossible to know when consumer confidence will be restored," Tiffany CEO Michael Kowalski said.

Toyota's long-term foreign and local debt ratings were downgraded to AA from AAA, with a negative outlook, by Fitch Ratings.

"The negative developments in the industry are so substantial and fundamental that even the strongest player -- Toyota -- can no longer support an 'AAA' rating," said Fitch Director Tatsuya Mizuno.

Other U.S. data was bleak. Consumer confidence hit a 28-year low (nN26332787), new-home sales and prices both dropped (nN26362778), and an index of regional business activity contracted at a more severe rate than expected (nN26341586).

In Cairo, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank could cut interest rates next week as long as there was evidence that inflation pressures have eased.

There is -- German inflation likely slowed for a fourth month running in November as fuel costs fell, pointing to easing price pressures in the broader euro zone, state data showed.

read more....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081126/business_us_financial.html?.v=14

China slashes rates as EU plots stimulus

China slashed interest rates by the biggest margin in 11 years on Wednesday and the European Union plotted a 200 billion euro stimulus plan as central banks and governments acted to jolt the world out of its deepening slowdown.

New U.S. government data underscored the severity of the downturn. U.S. consumer spending plunged at the steepest rate in more than seven years in October and U.S. durable goods orders tumbled at twice the rate economists expected.

President-elect Barack Obama, naming former Fed chairman Paul Volcker to head a special advisory panel on the financial crisis, promised new approaches to deal with the economic maelstrom.

"It has become increasingly clear in recent months that we are facing an economic crisis of historic proportions," Obama told reporters. "We are called to seek fresh thinking and bold new ideas from the leading minds across America."

Stocks moved higher. The Dow Jones industrials were up following their first three-day gain since August. European stocks ended slightly higher after trading choppily much of the day. Japan's Nikkei average shed 1.3 percent.

The dollar rose versus the euro.

Oil rose above $53.